It’s this time of the year again. Everyone is working on their long-term plans, and I’m no different. My long-term, 2-year business plan includes many exciting things – including another batch of the CPO Bootcamp every year, and other surprises (stay tuned!). I have been working on it for a while, and as the direction got clearer I showed it to my number one advisor. 

“That’s amazing,” he said. “But let’s think even bigger. Where do you want to be 5 years from now?”

I was surprised to see that even though that’s a crucial question that I contemplate a lot with, I couldn’t give a definitive answer right away. I mean, I have a general idea of what I want – what’s right for both me personally and my business, but from what I already know about the next 2 years it is clear to me that I will learn so much about myself, my market, and my business during that time, that it’s hard to even imagine the full realm of possibilities so far into the future.

We discussed it for a while as it is, indeed, an important question. It was nice to dream big for a while. We imagined where this can actually take me (metaphorically and physically alike) and tried to assess the big opportunities that lie ahead. But when it came again to deciding on my immediate next steps, as well as the general plan for the foreseeable future, these big or even bigger opportunities didn’t matter. My 2-year plan is a necessary step for these bigger dreams anyway, and is awesome in and of itself.

With that decision we turned off the lights and went to sleep. Oh, I forgot to mention that my number one advisor above is my dear husband 🙂 I’m very fortunate to be able to brainstorm with him on such important matters, our pillow talks are the best!

This dilemma is not unique to my business. I see my consulting customers having to make the exact same decisions. Last month, for example, I met a startup, which had a good indication from the market that their initial product direction was viable. The people they talked to wanted to test their product, they loved what they saw, and were intrigued to hear and get more. But you know how it works, this initial traction is very delicate, and alongside these positive signals there are legitimate concerns, so the decision to move forward with it is not trivial. That’s especially true if you need to go all-in with this single direction (which you should, it’s called focus and it’s critical for startup success) and leave all other options aside. They kept wondering and consulted with me on whether they should take a slightly different direction, that has the potential to become even bigger than their initial one in the future.

I feel for them, really. These strategic business decisions need to be made under extreme uncertainty, and since there are so many options it’s easy to lose your way. Here are the questions I asked them – and you should ask yourself – in order to feel comfortable with the decision, whichever it may be.

Is There an Objective Problem With Your Current Direction?

If you’re unsure which path to take, the first thing you need to do is understand the root cause of your concerns. Do you feel that there is a serious problem in choosing your current direction, or are you only skeptical because there might be a better one out there?

If this dilemma sounds familiar, it’s for a reason. The most common example of it is in today’s dating world, where the abundance of alternatives makes it very difficult for some people to feel comfortable with getting serious with this nice person they are currently dating. I mean, they are nice and all, I don’t have anything bad to say about them, but is it really the best I can do? What if there is someone else out there that will make me happier?

It might sound silly but this is the psychological nature of people who need to make decisions wherever they need to do so – in romantic relationships, parenting, everyday situations and of course work. 

It’s very natural to be confused. But when it comes to work, and especially strategy related decisions, let me be very clear: FOMO is not a good reason to pivot. Pivots are hard, even when your current direction is only in its first steps. Also, no one promises you that the pivot will succeed. It always looks brighter before you start, ask every entrepreneur. Remind yourself that FOMO goes both ways – what if you will go with a shiny bright alternative instead of your current one, and realize too late that you actually had the right opportunity at hand and decided to give it up?

Instead of looking at it through the FOMO lens, you should assess the direction you are about to choose as objectively as possible. If it is good enough (it doesn’t need to be perfect), it’s probably a great first step.

Is the Market Ready for You? 

A Google veteran once told me that the company had developed a great natural language search algorithm pretty much when it first launched. So how come we all got used to using keyword-based search, and natural language search has only become popular in recent years? We are talking about Google, after all, if they knew how to do it back in 2000, one could expect that this would become how people search. The answer is that the market wasn’t ready. People didn’t intuitively use it – who would think you can “talk” to a computer? They decided to put this advanced technology aside and stuck with the way people wanted to use search back then. They used the more advanced, natural way of searching only years later, alongside the rising popularity of voice assistants which naturally call for speak-like queries. Was it the right choice? In retrospect it’s easy to say yes, but could some other company do it instead and leave Google to be a small, niche, startup? Perhaps, but it’s not that they didn’t try: both Ask Jeeves and Alta Vista, who used a more forward-thinking technology at the beginning, are now long gone. 

So is it a good idea to bet on a potential future direction of the market? First of all you need to remember that it’s a bet, and ask yourself if you are willing to make it, and for what potential outcome. This is especially true for a startup that by definition has limited resources. It’s hard enough to succeed even if you solve today’s burning problems. If the market is going to be ready for you only in years’ time, your chances to succeed just dropped dramatically.

Remember that even though you might be ready to tackle a problem that you see coming, it doesn’t mean the market is ready for it. Sometimes your target audience needs to deal with their immediate problems before they are ready to deal with any future ones. It’s like Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: you might think (or even know) that your clients need self-actualization (highest in the hierarchy), but for them to even consider it, they must satisfy their physiological needs first.

Here is a quick exercise to see if the market is ready for you: start with the problems you see today, and ask yourself: when this problem is solved, what will become the next problem? Build your own Maslow’s hierarchy of customer problems, from the customer’s point of view. Then, give each problem a score that reflects how well this problem is already solved today. You don’t want to tackle a problem that is almost already solved, but you can’t solve a problem that your potential customers don’t yet feel.

Do You Even Know What’s Out There?

All of that doesn’t mean you should not plan ahead. You should. You need to create your vision and define your strategy accordingly – simply because you need a vision to guide you and you need to create the best one you can at any given point in time. But don’t fall in love with your vision, because it will surely change.

One reason is that you usually simply cannot see all the possibilities from where you are today. Most options – or at least many additional ones – will be more apparent only after you walk a mile in your initial path. You might think you see the best options now, but you will probably have many more options to choose from in the future, which you simply cannot comprehend or even imagine right now.

Another reason is that the details matter, and they, in turn, impact and reshape the vision itself. The details are uncovered only as you start implementing your vision, so there is no way to get to a perfect vision on paper, or at least not one that is rooted in reality. On one hand, you must keep your eyes on the bigger picture, be innovative and think big, but on the other hand, if you stay only there you might miss the details ahead of you and fail nonetheless.

Don’t get too hooked on your vision, instead make sure you demonstrate success here and now, one step at a time. If the market gives you an indication that you are onto something — go for it. If you are not on the right path, usually, the market will find its way to tell you (just make sure you keep your eyes open). Whatever vision you created, you will see a brighter, bigger or different one after you concur the peak you have in front of you.