When I first chatted with Arik, the person who was about to become my husband less than 2 years later, he felt I was interviewing him for a job. I asked so many questions about what he did, where and what he studied, where he grew up etc. – all because I wanted to get to know him. 

Some of you might think that knowing all of these facts about someone doesn’t really mean that you know him (I know that’s what Arik thought too), and you are probably right. But they did help me in two ways: first, they let me frame him in my mind. A text-only first impression, if you like. Second, they let me find common grounds with him – people we both knew, choices we both made, and anything else that could be part of the foundation of a good relationship, or at least a good conversation starter. 

I went to see that chat again (yes, I have saved the MSN messenger file of the entire chat for almost 15 years!). We talked about my blog (I had an anonymous blog where I wrote about my life), my volunteering experience as a medical clown and working in hospitals with kids, and also about mathematics, computer science, and marketing.

We did find quite a few people we had both known and realized that despite living next to each other for many years and studying in the same university and department at the same time, we never met. Or at least never noticed each other. 

Later on, when we realized that we both love mathematics very much, we also agreed that the subject we both hate is Numerical Analysis. I mean, who likes approximations, right? The whole point in math is that there is a clear set of rules that defines the universe. Things are definitive. There is an answer that can be calculated.

We have both gone a long way since, but I still use this example a lot. Working in the startup nation, many of the product leaders I coach – either one on one or as part of the CPO Bootcamp – used to be engineers or even mathematicians before they shifted to product. And in the product world, often there isn’t a right or clear answer, which makes things complicated.

These former engineers often find themselves in analysis paralysis, since they want to decide based on data but there is no data that can help them make a definitive decision. Here are a few tips that I use to help them decide nonetheless.

Adopt a Risk Management Mindset

One of the things I hear very frequently from product leaders in these situations is that they don’t know for certain and therefore cannot decide. But wait, who said that you need to know with great certainty? 

Unlike what you might think, your job as a product leader is not always to clear uncertainty. It definitely is part of it, but uncertainty is built into the product world, and the higher-up you are, the higher the uncertainty is. 

In some cases, your job is to find (or guide others in finding) the right data that will help you make a decision. But it’s not true 100% of the time. In some cases, such data doesn’t exist. In others, the time it will take you to find this data is more expensive than the risk you are trying to mitigate. 

Because here’s the thing: your job is to lead with risk management, not risk avoidance. Risk management means, by definition, that some risks need to be taken. It also means, by the way, that sometimes these risks will materialize and you will realize you were wrong. It still doesn’t mean that you took the wrong decision at the time.

If you find yourself struggling with this, I recommend reading Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets. Annie is a Poker champion who turned decision strategist. She talks about the many decisions that one needs to make around the Poker table, and about the fact that even if she lost a round, it doesn’t mean that the decision itself was wrong. It’s an important distinction to carry with you as a product leader.

If You Have to Choose One, Which Is It?

Many product people are turning to data to help them with their decisions, but in doing so they also ignore what they already know or even think. We are so trained that our opinions don’t matter that we sometimes forget that we are not supposed to decide like a machine. Product decisions are often complex, especially when they need to be made in a timely manner. On one hand, it adds to the challenge that is already there. But on the other, it means that you have real power in your hands. Your decisions matter. And hey, you are highly unlikely to be replaced by a machine anytime soon!

There is a simple technique that I use to help people make hard decisions. It’s especially useful when they contemplate a number of options and can’t seem to decide, but also don’t have any new information to add that will make the decision easier. In such cases, I ask them –  if they had to choose one option, just one, can’t do half here and half there, which one would it be? They don’t always like the question, it could be annoying, but it is exactly the question that can help them go beyond the analysis paralysis.

Note that I am not forcing them to choose, I’m just asking “if you had to choose”. In many cases, once they chose hypothetically, they realize it’s the right choice in practice too. 

This technique is useful not only around decisions about the future but also when you need to understand your current status. For example, let’s say that you are building a new product and are conquering the customer journey step by step. When I ask which step are you currently at, the answer can be complex: we started with acquisition, we are so so there, in activation we are good but can always be better, we are taking our first steps in retention (although we do see some ongoing activity without any effort on our side) and we haven’t started on monetization. While this type of answer could be 100% accurate, it’s not a helpful one if you need to move forward. Sometimes you need to be more definitive in describing where you are at, even if it is not 100% accurate. So when I ask the question this way – where are you at in your journey and you can only point to a specific stage – it creates clarity and allows you to see the bigger picture that will allow you to focus.

Solve for the 80%

Another way to simplify complex decisions is to understand what you need to do in most cases, but not all of them. There will always be customers for which the feature you are considering is not the right answer, even if the feature itself is the right thing to do. There will always be additional risks that will remain after you mitigate the major ones. 

But the fact that these things remain unhandled, does not mean that you should give up. You can always continue with a solution that will solve most of the problem. Otherwise, it would be like saying that because people can break your window and enter your house, you shouldn’t lock the door. 

I highly appreciate the desire to find the perfect solution. I am trying to do that all the time myself. But there comes a time where you need to decide, and solve for the most part rather than continuing the search for the perfect solution.

Stereotypes – which is something we usually try to avoid, especially thinking about diversity and inclusion – can actually be helpful here. Stereotypes are a way to simplify a complex world so that one can act upon it. Generalization – defined in Wikipedia as “a form of abstraction whereby common properties of specific instances are formulated as general concepts or claims” – is exactly what we sometimes need in order to move forward or even know what to do. 

It’s how our brains work since the beginning of evolution. I can’t know for sure that any big creature with large teeth is dangerous, but I might as well treat all of them as such so that I don’t have to decide on a case by case basis. In the product world, when we create customer profiles and solve for them, it might not cover the needs of each and every customer, but it would help us cover most of the world with a few clear guidelines.

You see, it’s true that not all of the people who studied math and computer science in Tel-Aviv University, who served a long time in the army, and who know and like quite a few poeple that I like too will become my friends, let alone my husbands. But it’s a great starting point. And we have eternity to deal with the details.